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Teacher Talk
Investing commentators are breathless as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes in on the 20,000 mark. Here’s a smattering of the recent clickbait, I mean, headlines (12.5 million results on Google!):
The Dow closed at 19,963.80 on Friday, January 6th. Ok, let’s just say there is a very high likelihood it crosses that magical 20,000 mark this week. I don’t think I am going out on a limb in predicting that (and you know how much I hate prognosticators!). So, back to the original question, does it matter? Quick refresher. Remember that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is made up of 30 large cap U.S. based companies (Apple, Coca-Cola and Disney are among the constituents). It is a price-weighted index which means stocks with higher stock prices have a larger impact on the index than lower-priced stocks. Listen to this 17 minute Planet Money podcast to hear them rant on why the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be ignored (frankly the S&P500 is a much better representative index than the DJ30)
So, what do I think? From an analytical standpoint, there is nothing magical about the index hitting this level except that it is a big round number (and somewhere there is an author of a book called Dow 20,000 who will magically appear on all the major financial networks when this milestone occurs). I would answer that it doesn’t matter, except it could impact investor psychology. How? It will generates lots of meaningless headlines and news stories and may get those “animal spirits” going on Wall Street and Main Street as the public wakes up to an rising stock market. Let’s see what happens. In the meantime…some math:
I thought it would be fun to see when the Dow first 5,000 point increment milestones previously:
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Tim's saving habits started at seven when a neighbor with a broken hip gave him a dog walking job. Her recovery, which took almost a year, resulted in Tim getting to know the bank tellers quite well (and accumulating a savings account balance of over $300!). His recent entrepreneurial adventures have included driving a shredding truck, analyzing executive compensation packages for Fortune 500 companies and helping families make better college financing decisions. After volunteering in 2010 to create and teach a personal finance program at Eastside College Prep in East Palo Alto, Tim saw firsthand the impact of an engaging and activity-based curriculum, which inspired him to start a new non-profit, Next Gen Personal Finance.
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