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One of the most important economic indicators is announced on the first Friday of every month at 8:30am ET:  the monthly jobs report. This data provides a signal on the health of the labor market by measuring the change in employment (aka “non-farm payrolls”) based on data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These figures are watched closely by investors as well as the Federal Reserve. 

Lately these statistics have confounded the experts on Wall Street. Their sophisticated models to estimate new job creation have been surprisingly inaccurate as their recent performance indicates:

• Non-farm payrolls in September of 2021 were expected to increase by 500,000 while actuals were 194,000. 
• Non-farm payrolls in August of 2021 were expected to increase by 733,000 while actuals were 235,000 (later revised upward to 366,000) 

Given these big misses by the “experts,” we thought we would turn to classrooms across the country to estimate the next job growth number for October, which will be released on November 5th, 2020 at 8:30am. 

Here’s a chart showing new jobs created (or lost) for each month over the past 12 months. Note: All amounts are in THOUSANDS OF JOBS: 

Contest details: 

1. Have your class research the importance of the monthly jobs report. Here’s a few resources to get you started:

• Article: Why the U.S. Monthly Jobs Report Matters (How Stuff Works)
• Video: Why the Jobs Report Matters to Investors (TD Ameritrade)
• Article (analyzes latest jobs report): Jobs Report and the Monthly Employment Growth Statistics (The Balance)

2. Have YOUR class come up with ONE estimate for the October jobs report rounded to the  nearest thousand (e.g., 194,000). 

3. COMPLETE this form before 8:30am ET on November 5th to be eligible. for the $100 Amazon gift card. 

4. After the monthly jobs figures are announced by BLS on November 6th at 8:30am ET, the winning classroom will be notified and will receive a $100 Amazon gift card to use at their discretion (and national bragging rights too). 

We look forward to your predictions! 

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Interested in the intersection between Economics and Personal Finance? Be sure to check out NGPF's Economics Directory and NEW! Econ Collection

About the Authors

Ryan Wood

Ryan grew up with and maintains a love for learning. He graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay with a degree in Business Administration and worked in sports marketing for a number of years. After living in Texas, Colorado, Tennessee, and Minnesota, the call of education eventually brought Ryan back to his home state of Wisconsin where he was a Business and Marketing teacher for three years. In his free time he likes to spend time with his wife and daughter, play basketball, read, and go fishing. Now with NGPF, Ryan is excited to help teachers lead the most important course their students will ever take.

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Tim Ranzetta

Tim's saving habits started at seven when a neighbor with a broken hip gave him a dog walking job. Her recovery, which took almost a year, resulted in Tim getting to know the bank tellers quite well (and accumulating a savings account balance of over $300!). His recent entrepreneurial adventures have included driving a shredding truck, analyzing executive compensation packages for Fortune 500 companies and helping families make better college financing decisions. After volunteering in 2010 to create and teach a personal finance program at Eastside College Prep in East Palo Alto, Tim saw firsthand the impact of an engaging and activity-based curriculum, which inspired him to start a new non-profit, Next Gen Personal Finance.

More posts by Tim