We received 100 entries from classrooms across the country the first time we ran the contest so we thought...why not do it again? ICYMI, Catherine Sturtz's period 9 class Intro to Business and Finance at Miller Place High School (NY) estimated October job growth of 525,000 vs. actual of 531,000.  Congrats to Catherine and her students! 

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One of the most important economic indicators is announced on the first Friday of every month at 8:30am ET:  the monthly jobs report. This data provides a signal on the health of the labor market by measuring the change in employment (aka “non-farm payrolls”) based on data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These figures are watched closely by investors as well as the Federal Reserve. 

Lately these statistics have confounded the experts on Wall Street. Their sophisticated models to estimate new job creation have been surprisingly inaccurate as their recent performance indicates:

• Non-farm payrolls in September of 2021 were expected to increase by 500,000 while actuals were 194,000. 
• Non-farm payrolls in August of 2021 were expected to increase by 733,000 while actuals were 235,000 (later revised upward to 366,000) 

Ok, the experts did do better with the October numbers as they guesstimated 450,000 vs. actual of 531,000.

So now is your chance!  What does your class think the job growth number will be for November, which will be released on December 3rd, 2021 at 8:30am. 

Here’s a chart showing new jobs created (or lost) for each month over the past 12 months. Note: All amounts are in THOUSANDS OF JOBS: 

Contest details: 

1. Have your class research the importance of the monthly jobs report. Here’s a few resources to get you started:

• Article: Why the U.S. Monthly Jobs Report Matters (How Stuff Works)
• Video: Why the Jobs Report Matters to Investors (TD Ameritrade)
• Article (analyzes latest jobs report): Jobs Report and the Monthly Employment Growth Statistics (The Balance)

2. Have YOUR class come up with ONE estimate for the November jobs report rounded to the  nearest thousand (e.g., 194,000). 

3. COMPLETE this form before 8:30am ET on December 3rd to be eligible. for the $100 Amazon gift card. 

4. After the monthly jobs figures are announced by BLS on December 3rd at 8:30am ET, the winning classroom will be notified and will receive a $100 Amazon gift card to use at their discretion (and national bragging rights too). 

Good luck!

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Interested in the intersection between Economics and Personal Finance? Be sure to check out NGPF's Economics Directory and NEW! Econ Collection

About the Author

Tim Ranzetta

Tim's saving habits started at seven when a neighbor with a broken hip gave him a dog walking job. Her recovery, which took almost a year, resulted in Tim getting to know the bank tellers quite well (and accumulating a savings account balance of over $300!). His recent entrepreneurial adventures have included driving a shredding truck, analyzing executive compensation packages for Fortune 500 companies and helping families make better college financing decisions. After volunteering in 2010 to create and teach a personal finance program at Eastside College Prep in East Palo Alto, Tim saw firsthand the impact of an engaging and activity-based curriculum, which inspired him to start a new non-profit, Next Gen Personal Finance.

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