Thanks to NGPF Fellow, Brian Johnson, for this entertaining post about collectibles and how the value of one baseball card has risen in light of an outstanding rookie season. 

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Building an investment portfolio should be made up of a good diversified stock index fund (e.g., S&P 500), perhaps a tech focused fund and maybe some international flavor.  But what about collectibles?  People have been investing in coins and stamps for years.  What about baseball cards?  Would a rookie card of sensation Aaron Judge be a good investment?

The answer is not a simple one.  Technically his first rookie card is #287 from the Topps Series 1.  This card is actually selling for around $5.00 on eBay.  However, with all of the different variations, companies, and sets there are around 50 Aaron Judge rookie cards from 2017.  The rarer the card, the higher the price will be.  There are many variations in the baseball card collecting world today that include short prints of a different scene, parallels of the same scene, numbered cards, cards with jerseys, and autographs.  So, if you were to get an autographed card numbered 1 of 1, you would have something pretty special!

As I mentioned, it hardly a simple exercise to determine if a particular card would make a good investment.  Aaron Judge was actually drafted into professional baseball back in 2013.  So while his rookie baseball cards are debuting with the 2017 sets, there are a lot of what are called prospect cards from 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. You might think of these as investments in start-up companies since these players have a limited playing history and are highly speculative bets.

So let’s journey back in time to the 2013 draft and see who came out of that class. With the gift of hindsight, we can look at the prices of their first prospect cards from the 2013 Leaf Metal Draft set and see how the value of these cards have changed.  The card values were first printed in the 2015 Beckett Baseball Card Price Guide.  Mark Appel, who was drafted number 1 overall, had an initial value of $30 for his 2013 Leaf Metal Draft card.  Kris Bryant made it to the big leagues first among this group and had a huge impact on the Cubs' success.  As you might expect, his card's initial value was $80 while Jonathan Gray, the 3rd pick in the draft, had a card value of $30.  

The Yankees had three later picks in the first round of the 2013 draft and it's quickly apparent how draft order impacted the value of their prospects' cards.  Eric Jagielo was selected by the Yankees 26th overall and his card had the highest value in 2015 at $25.00.  Aaron Judge was selected 32nd in the first round and his card was valued at $20.00.  Ian Clarkin was the final player drafted in the first round at 33rd and his initial prospect card was valued at $10.00.  The only player in this group for first round picks whose card value changed in the 2016 Beckett Baseball Price Guide was Kris Bryant.  His 2013 Leaf Metal Draft card’s value increased to $150.00.  At the time of the printing of the price guide, the Cubs were in the pennant hunt with Bryant playing a major role in the team’s success.  

So, where do these players stand today? Aaron Judge has made it to the majors with the Yankees and is currently leading all rookies in two important offensive categories, home runs and RBIs (runs batted in).  He also won the coveted Major League Baseball Home Run Derby in grand fashion during the recent All-Star game festivities [Editor's note: Every night my 8-year old son begs to watch SportsCenter to find out if Aaron "Here Comes The" Judge has hit another homer.]  So what has this done to his 2013 Leaf Metal Draft Card?  Sent it’s value soaring!   One recently sold for $305.00.  That’s a 1,425% increase!

The 2013 Leaf Metal Draft set included 61 different players with a variety of parallels and inserts.  They were sold in a pack of 6 cards for around $90.  So the chances of getting Aaron Judge or Kris Bryant were pretty slim.  In case you were wondering how the stock market performed over this same period, the S&P 500 was at $1,632.97 in August of 2013 and currently stands at $2,443.05.  That’s a 49.6% increase.  That may not be as flashy as the Aaron Judge prospect card, but it’s probably a better place to put your retirement!

Works Cited

Fleischer, Brian, editor. Beckett Baseball Card Price Guide. 37thth ed., 2015.

Payne, Mike, editor. Beckett Baseball Card Price Guide. 38thth ed., 2016.

eBay, eBay, Inc. Accessed 26 Aug. 2017.

Cracknell, Ryan. "THE VERDICT ON AARON JUDGE ROOKIE CARDS." Beckett Media, Beckett Collectibles, Inc., www.beckett.com/news/aaron-judge-rookie-cards/. Accessed 26 Aug. 2017.

About the Author

Tim Ranzetta

Tim's saving habits started at seven when a neighbor with a broken hip gave him a dog walking job. Her recovery, which took almost a year, resulted in Tim getting to know the bank tellers quite well (and accumulating a savings account balance of over $300!). His recent entrepreneurial adventures have included driving a shredding truck, analyzing executive compensation packages for Fortune 500 companies and helping families make better college financing decisions. After volunteering in 2010 to create and teach a personal finance program at Eastside College Prep in East Palo Alto, Tim saw firsthand the impact of an engaging and activity-based curriculum, which inspired him to start a new non-profit, Next Gen Personal Finance.

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